Say it Isn't Snow! Arctic Air Meets Gulf Waters as the Florida Weather Forecast Eyes Gulf-Effect Snow

Could Florida experience Gulf Coast snow?

Florida is about to experience a blast of real winter weather this weekend, and...just maybe snow flurries will dance along the Gulf Coast.

Updated Thursday, January 29, 2026 – Forecasters are tracking a rare weather scenario. A surge of Arctic air will clash with the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. When that happens we can sometimes see “Gulf-effect” snow, a phenomenon similar to lake-effect snow that occasionally happens in Upstate New York and the Great Lakes region.

Tampa Bay, Nature Coast, sections of North Florida north toward Big Bend and even spots in Southwest Florida could glimpse snowfall late Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Models even suggest a chance for Northeast Florida. But this isn’t the kind of forecast that will blanket the state in snow. Any snow will be temporary and light—a quick flurry and maybe an inch or two on the ground, on grass or your car, but that’s about it. No accumulation is expected.

With that said, it will be cold. Low temperatures will plunge into the low-to-mid 30s with gusty winds along the coast (45 to 50 mph). The winds are strong enough that theme parks will close water rides from Saturday through Monday.

Meteorologists are giving some areas of Florida up to a 20% chance of winter weather. Will there be snow flurries late Saturday night? Sure. Could happen. Most areas will see closer to 5-10% chance, but Florida loves to talk about any chance of snow, no matter how small.

It’s already been cold in Florida this week. Overnight lows have reached the upper 20s and low 30s, and after a brief warming trend, it’ll be even colder on Sunday and Monday. Look for lows in Orlando on Sunday morning to reach the dreaded 26 to 29-degree range. That’ll be the coldest air the city has seen in 16 years.

Ocala and The Villages will be even chillier with wind chills well below freezing. A gust of Arctic air will ride over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico and produce Gulf-effect snow.

When bitterly cold air moves over the warm waters, the bottom layer of air absorbs heat and moisture from the water. This causes the air to rise and form clouds, which will produce flurries as they make landfall. That’s basically lake-effect snow happening in Florida. The Gulf Coast has the best chance of seeing any snowflakes this weekend (particularly Tampa).