Decoding the Decline: What Recent School Closures Mean for Florida's Future

After the news broke about school closures in Orange County, residents in Central Florida started asking the obvious: why are there fewer students in these neighborhoods?

The answer isn’t hidden in some complicated demographic study. Real estate experts point out something much simpler—nobody’s moving. Empty nesters are staying put. They raised their kids in these houses, watched them grow up and leave, but instead of selling and moving on, they’re hanging on to their homes. With today’s economy, who can blame them?

But the story runs deeper than just stubborn homeowners. Across America, the birth rate keeps dropping, and it’s not just a topic for policy wonks, everyone from economists to the president has weighed in.

Usually, you hear about the big-picture fallout: Social Security, the future of the workforce, even the housing market in general. But there’s a quieter shift happening right here, in the places where the youngest kids are disappearing fastest. What does a city look like when there just aren’t as many little kids running around?

For a long time, the map of American families made sense. If you wanted space and a decent price tag, you moved to places like Salt Lake City, Phoenix, or Denver. These cities had growth in their DNA, affordable, sprawling, and famous for being great for families. People thought that would last. But even these “family magnets” are seeing their youngest residents thin out.

Take a look at the numbers. According to Realtor.com’s deep dive into U.S. Census data from 2010 and 2024, nearly every major metro area in the country has fewer kids under five than it did a decade ago. Back in 2010, the percentage of kids under five in these cities ranged from about 5.4% up to 9%. Now, we’re looking at 4.2% to 6.8%. Even cities that added people overall aren’t adding young children, proportionally, like they used to.

So, the big question: Can cities still call themselves “family-friendly” if families with young kids make up a shrinking share?

Let’s get into the details. Salt Lake City, which has always been the poster child for family growth, actually saw the steepest drop, down 3.1% in the share of children under five since 2010. It’s not for lack of family amenities. The real culprit is national: birth rates have hit a record low this year, according to CDC data.

And Salt Lake isn’t alone. Phoenix is down 2.3%. Denver, Atlanta, Riverside, and even pricey San Jose all dropped about 2%. These are cities built on the promise of growth, packed with jobs and new housing, so you’d expect a baby boom. Instead, the pipeline of young kids is drying up. It’s clear now: just adding more people doesn’t guarantee you’ll get more families with young children.

Still, some places do stand out. Only a few major metros have more than 6% of their population under five in 2024. Fresno leads with 6.8%. Houston is next at 6.5%. Dallas and Memphis tie at 6.3%, Indianapolis is at 6.2%, San Antonio comes in at 6.1%, and Oklahoma City rounds out the group at 6%. These cities still look like magnets for young families, at least on paper. But even here, the trend is down. They had even higher shares of young children in 2010.

Then there are the cities where the share of little kids held steady, or dropped the least. It’s not the usual suspects. Forget the Sun Belt boomtowns. Instead, think of places with aging populations and high costs, cities where you wouldn’t expect to see a lot of young kids. New York City actually saw the smallest decline of all, just 0.7%. Pittsburgh and Hartford followed with 0.8% drops.

Then you’ve got a group, Miami, Boston, Detroit, Tampa, Baltimore, Virginia Beach, Cleveland, where declines hovered around 0.9 to 1%. Why? It’s probably because these cities already had fewer kids under five to begin with.

So, we’re left with a new reality. The family-friendly map looks different now. Fewer kids are being born, and even the cities that built their reputations on growth and family life are feeling the squeeze. It’s not just a headline, it’s changing the character of entire communities.